Determinantes de recurrencia de ataques terroristas.
Análisis global con datos panel
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30854/anf.v31.n56.2023.956Palabras clave:
Terrorismo, Ataques terroristas, Reclamos del ataque, Modelos estocásticos, Datos panelResumen
Objetivo: en este estudio, se tiene por objetivo establecer los determinantes del número de ataques terroristas en un territorio a través del tiempo. Metodología: como novedad, en primer lugar, se incorporan elementos tanto de la teoría del reclamo de los ataques como de la recurrencia de ellos, para tener un espectro analítico más profundo. Y, en segundo lugar, se implementa un modelo estocástico binomial negativo con datos panel, caracterizado por ser dinámico para evitar problemas de endogeneidad. La información utilizada proviene de las bases de datos Global Terrorism Database, Big Allied and Dangerous, Political Terror Scale y World Bank. Resultados: los resultados inicialesobtenidos indican que la probabilidad de ataques terroristas aumenta cuando hay antecedentes de asalto armado, alto nivel educativo, ataques suicidas y ataques a civiles; en tanto que disminuye con la existencia de una alta participación laboral femenina y bajos índices de corrupción. De otro lado, la investigación encontró evidencia empírica suficiente para afirmar que la teoría del reclamo de los ataques ayuda a explicar el fenómeno del número de ataques mediante la inclusión de los objetivos civiles, número de víctimas fatales, asaltos armados y suicidios. Conclusiones: y aún más importante, si se incorporan variables propias de las teorías del número de ataques; tales como la participación laboral femenina, variación en el PIB per cápita, gastos en educación y el índice de corrupción, los resultados son significativamente más robustos al ampliar el espectro argumentativo y potenciar la capacidad explicativa de las variables entre sí.
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Derechos de autor 2024 Isabel Cristina Rivera-Lozada, Andres Mauricio Gomez-Sanchez, Jorge Luis Rivadeneira-Daza
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