Determinants of Recurrence of Terrorist Attacks.
Global Analysis with Panel Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30854/anf.v31.n56.2023.956Keywords:
Terrorism, Terrorist attacks, Recurrence, Stochastic models, Panel dataAbstract
Objective: The objective of this study is to establish the determinants of the number of terrorist attacks in a territory over time. Methodology: Elements of both the theory of the attack claims and the recurrence of attacks are incorporated, to obtain a deeper analytical spectrum. Secondly, a negative binomial stochastic model with panel data is implemented, characterized by being dynamic to avoid endogeneity problems. The information used comes from the Global Terrorism Database, Big Allied and Dangerous, Political Terror Scale, and World Bank databases. Results: The initial results obtained indicate that the probability of terrorist attacks increases when there is a history of armed assault, a high educational level, suicide attacks, and attacks on civilians, while it decreases with high female labor participation and low corruption rates. Alternatively, the research found sufficient empirical evidence to affirm that the attack claims help to explain the phenomenon of the number of attacks by including civilian targets, the number of fatalities, armed assaults, and suicides. Conclusions: If variables from the number of attack theories are incorporated, such as female labor participation, variation in GDP per capita, education expenditures, and the corruption index, the results are significantly more robust. This broadens the argumentative spectrum and enhances the explanatory capacity of the variables amongst themselves.
Downloads
References
Abrahms, M. (2013). The Credibility Paradox: Violence as a Double-Edged Sword in International Politics. International Studies Quarterly, 57(4), 660–671. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12098
Abrahms, M. (2018). Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History. Oxford University Press. https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198811558.001.0001/oso-9780198811558
Abrahms, M. y Conrad, J. (2017). The Strategic Logic of Credit Claiming: A New Theory for Anonymous Terrorist Attacks. Security Studies, 26(2), 279–304. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2017.1280304
Abrahms, M. y Lula, K. (2012). Why Terrorists Overestimate the Odds of Victory. Perspectives on Terrorism, 6(4–5), 46–62. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26296876
Abrahms, M. y Potter, P. B. K. (2015). Explaining Terrorism: Leadership Deficits and Militant Group Tactics. International Organization, 69(2), 311–342. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818314000411
Abrahms, M., Ward, M. y Kennedy, R. (2018). Explaining Civilian Attacks: Terrorist Networks, Principal-Agent Problems and Target Selection. Perspectives on Terrorism, 12(1), 23–45. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26343744
Altheide, D. L. (2006). Terrorism and the Politics of Fear. Cultural studies – Critical Methodologies, 6(4), 415-439. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532708605285733
Altheide, D. L. (2007). The Mass Media and Terrorism. Discourse & Communication, 1(3), 287-308. https://doi.org/10.1177/1750481307079207
Bell, L. N. (2017). Terrorist Assassinations and Target Selection. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 40(2), 157–171. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2016.1184060
Bénézech, M. y Estano, N. (2016). À la recherche d’une âme: Psychopathologie de la radicalisation et du terrorisme. Annales Medico-Psychologiques, 174(4), 235–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2016.01.001
Berrebi, C. (2007). Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy Evidence about the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism among Palestinians. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 13(1), 1–36. https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1101
Brown, J. M. (2020). Notes to the Underground: Credit Claiming and Organizing in the Earth Liberation Front. Terrorism and Political Violence, 32(2), 237–256. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2017.1364637
Byman, D. (2020). Understanding, and Misunderstanding, State Sponsorship of Terrorism. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 45(12), 1031-1049. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1738682
Byman, D. y Kreps, S. E. (2010). Agents of Destruction? Applying principal-agent analysis to state-sponsored terrorism. International Studies Perspectives, 11(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3585.2009.00389.x
Crelinsten, R. D. y Schmid, A. P. (1992). Western Responses to Terrorism: A Twenty-Five Year Balance Sheet. Terrorism and Political Violence, 4(4), 307–340. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546559208427189
D’Souza, S. M. (2016). Taliban: The Rebels Who Aspire to be Rulers. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 3(1), 20–40. https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797015626043
Demir, M., y Guler, A. (2021). A Comparison of Target Types, Weapon Types, and Attack Types in Suicide-Terrorism Incidents Before and After 9/11 Terrorist Attacks. Security Journal, 35, 823-848. https://doi.org/10.1057/s4128402100301-6
Downes, A. B. (2007). Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves: Investigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy. Civil Wars, 9(4), 420–444. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240701699631
Duderija, A. (2021). Women’s Rights as Human Rights in Islam. En S.M, Steiner y J.T, Christie (Ed.), Religious Soft Diplomacy and The United Nations: Religious Engagement as Loyal Opposition (pp. 179-190). Rowman & Littlefield.
Elden, S. (2014). The Geopolitics of Boko Haram and Nigeria’s “War on Terror”. Geographical Journal, 180(4), 414–425. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12120
Ette, M., y Joe, S. (2019). Boko Haram in The Nigerian Press: The Politics of Labelling. Journal of African Media Studies, 11(1), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.1386/jams.11.1.65_1
Halkos, G., Managi, S. y Zisiadou, A. (2017). Analyzing the Determinants of Terrorist Attacks and Their Market Reactions. Economic Analysis and Policy, 54, 57–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2017.02.002
Hamilton, L. C. y Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Dynamics of Terrorism. International Studies Quarterly, 27(1), 39-54. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600618
Hoffman, A. M. (2010). Voice and Silence: Why Groups Take Credit for Acts of Terror. Journal of Peace Research, 47(5), 615–626. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310376439
Horgan, J. (2006). Psicología del terrorismo. Gedisa.
Kearns, E. M. (2019). When to Take Credit for Terrorism? A Cross-National Examination of Claims and Attributions. Terrorism and Political Violence, 33(1), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1540982
Kluch, S. P., y Vaux, A. (2016). The Non-Random Nature of Terrorism: An Exploration of Where and How Global Trends of Terrorism Have Developed Over 40 Years. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 39(12), 1031–1049. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2016.1159070
Krueger, A. B., y Malečková, J. (2003). Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 119–144. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003772034925
Lake, D. A. (2002). Rational Extremism: Understanding Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century. Cambridge University Press.
Lee, CH. (2013). Democracy, Civil Liberties, and Hostage-Taking Terrori sm. Journal of Peace Re search , 50(2) , 235–248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312465424
Li, Q. (2005). Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(2), 278–297. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704272830
Farnham, N. y Liem, M. (2017). Can a Copycat Effect be Observed in Terrorist Suicide Attacks? The International Centre of Counter-Terrorism, 8(4), 1-34. https://doi.org/10.19165/2017.1.04
McCauley, C. y Moskalenko, S. (2017). Understanding Political Radicalization: The Two-Pyramids Model. American Psychologist, 72(3), 205–216. https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000062
Moskalenko, S. & McCauley, C. (2009). Measuring Political Mobilization: The Distinction Between Activism and Radicalism. Terrorism and Political Violence, 21(2), 239–260. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550902765508
Mroszczyk, J. (2019). To Die or to Kill? An Analysis of Suicide Attack Lethality. Terrorism and Political Violence, 31(2), 346–366. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2016.1228632
Nacos, B. L. (2009). Revisiting the Contagion Hypothesis: Terrorism, News Coverage, and Copycat Attacks. Perspectives on Terrorism, 3(3), 3–13. https://doaj.org/article/71f7528992314ed6817cdaf5ad0e3a35
Nemeth, S. (2014). The Effect of Competition on Terrorist Group Operations. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58(2), 336–362. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002712468717
O’Rourke, L. A. (2009). What’s Special about Female Suicide Terrorism? Security Studies, 18(4), 681–718. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410903369084
Pape, R. A. (2003). The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. American Political Science Review, 97(3), 343-361. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305540300073X
Pérez-González, A. B. (2021). Avances y resistencias en el largo camino hacia la igualdad de la mujer. Revista de Estudios Socioeducativos. ReSed, 1(9), 10-12. https://revistas.uca.es/index.php/ReSed/article/view/7807
Piazza, J. A. (2008). Do Democracy and Free Markets Protect Us From Terrorism? International Politics, 45(1), 72–91. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800220
Piazza, J. A. (2017). The Determinants of Domestic Right-Wing Terrorism in The USA: Economic Grievance, Societal Change and Political Resentment. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 34(1), 52–80. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215570429
Phillips, P. J. (2012). Lone Wolf Terrorism: Prudence in the Lone Wolf ’s Planning and the Time Delay between Acts of Lone Wolf Terrorism. SSRN, 1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2149894
Rudner, M. (2017). “Electronic Jihad”: The Internet as Al Qaeda’s Catalyst for Global Terror. Studies in Conflict y Terrorism, 40(1), 10–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2016.1157403
Salehyan, I., Siroky, D., y Wood, R. M. (2014). External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian Abuse: A Principal-Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities. International Organization, 68(3), 633–661. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081831400006X
Sandler, T., y Scott, J. L. (1987). Terrorist Success in Hostage-Taking Incidents: An Empirical Study. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31(1), 35–53. http://www.jstor.org/stable/174168
Shapiro, J. N. (2013). The Terrorist’s Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations. The RUSI Journal, 158(6), 105-106. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2013.869731
Simpson, M. (2014). Terrorism and Corruption. International Journal of Sociology, 44(2), 87–104. https://doi.org/10.2753/ijs0020-7659440204
Skoll, G. R. & Korstanje, M. E. (2013). Constructing an American Fear Culture From Red Scares to Terrorism. International Journal of Human Rights and Constitutional Studies, 1(4), 341-364. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijhrcs.2013.057302
Stohl, M. (2012). Don’t Confuse Me With The Facts: Knowledge Claims and Terrorism. Critical Studies on Terrorism, 5(1), 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/17539153.2012.659908
Toft, M. D., y Zhukov, Y. M. (2012). Denial and Punishment in The North Caucasus: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Coercive Counter-Insurgency. Journal of Peace Research, 49(6), 785–800. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312448389
Wilkinson, P. (1981). Proposals for Government and International Responses to Terrorism. Terrorism, 5(1–2), 161–193. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576108108435509
Williams, B. G. (2011). On the Trail of the “Lions of Islam”: Foreign Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1980-2010. Orbis, 55(2), 216–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2011.01.004
Wright, A. L. (2014). Why do Terrorists Claim Credit? In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Ed.), Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis (pp. 1–30). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Yadav, V. (2010). The Myth of the Moderate Taliban. Asian Affairs: An American Review, 37(3), 133–145. https://doi.org/10.1080/00927678.2010.503924
Young, J. K., y Dugan, L. (2014). Survival of the Fittest: Why Terrorist Groups Endure. Perspectives on Terrorism, 8(2), 2–23. https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/survival-fittest-why-terrorist-groups-endure
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Isabel Cristina Rivera-Lozada, Andres Mauricio Gomez-Sanchez, Jorge Luis Rivadeneira-Daza
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Once the manuscript is approved, the authors should file and sign the Right Transfer Format.
