Colombian Regions and Armed Conflict

A Socio-economic Study in a Center-periphery Model 2000-2017

Abstract

Objective: to analyze the effect of the Colombian armed conflict on economic growth through variables that were identified in 12 departments divided into two groups based on the center-periphery model. Methodology: aims at demonstrating the relationship between economic growth and the scourge of conflict through macroeconomics – GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GDP per capita (Gross Domestic Product per person) ─ economics (birth rate, labor market) and violence (war actions, homicides, kidnappings). A multiple linear regression was conducted to understand the functional relationship between the dependent (GDP) and independent constants contained in the model. Observing which variables are those that affect the behavior of GDP, as the same conditions will be maintained in the rest of the variables, was possible. Results: whether or not a relationship exists between the armed conflict in Colombia and departmental economic growth was explained, that is, the significant variables and those that have the coefficients and the p-value, (probability of statistical value), found by Stata. 

The variables of the model were found, the number of observations (Obs), the average (Mean), the standard deviation (SD), the minimum value (Min) and maximum value (Max). Conclusions: this study demonstrated the relationship between the armed conflict and the economic growth of those departments located in the periphery, those that have the greatest conflict presence and evidence of State neglect. As expected, the results of the model were significant despite the fact that certain explanatory variables did not show the expected sign-value, therefore they were neither included in the analysis of public policies nor in the conclusions. For those that did show the expected sign-value, the respective analyses were made in order to provide solutions that lead to a reduction of the armed conflict in all its dimensions and its direct impact on the behavior of the departmental GDP.